Pierre Poilievre leads new poll at 42%, just ahead of Mark Carney’s Liberals at 40%

OTTAWA · November 2, 2025 — A new poll from Abacus Data shows the federal Conservatives under Pierre Poilievre holding a narrow lead over Prime Minister Mark Carney’s Liberals, underscoring an increasingly competitive political landscape as Canada heads toward a possible 2026 election.

According to the survey, the Conservatives sit at 42% support nationally, while the Liberals follow closely at 40%. The NDP trails at 8%, followed by the Bloc Québécois at 6% and the Green Party at 3%.

The two-point Conservative advantage falls within the poll’s margin of error but represents a continuation of recent momentum for Poilievre’s party, which has been gaining traction across Ontario, British Columbia, and parts of Atlantic Canada.

Political analysts suggest the results reflect voter unease about economic uncertainty and cost-of-living pressures — issues that have dominated federal politics since Carney’s rise to leadership earlier this year.

“The Conservatives have found success focusing on affordability and government accountability,” said one political strategist. “But the Liberals remain competitive, especially with Carney’s renewed emphasis on stability and fiscal discipline.”

The poll also indicates that Carney’s personal approval rating has improved since taking office, narrowing the leadership favorability gap that once heavily favored Poilievre. Among undecided voters, many cited the economy, healthcare, and housing as their top concerns heading into the next election cycle.

Despite the tight race, both parties are framing the numbers as encouraging. Conservative campaign officials say the results prove Canadians are “ready for change,” while Liberal sources argue the party is “regaining ground” after a challenging transition year.

Meanwhile, NDP support has softened, with voters drifting toward both major parties. Political observers note that Jagmeet Singh’s party could again play a pivotal role if Parliament ends in another minority configuration.

With Parliament set to resume debate over the upcoming federal budget, the stakes are rising for both Carney and Poilievre. A budget defeat could trigger an election, setting the stage for what many expect to be one of the most closely fought campaigns in recent Canadian history.

Source: Abacus Data, November 2, 2025

By Canada Today Staff
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